What do the 1990s hold for astronomy and astrophysics?

What do the 1990s hold for astronomy and astrophysics?

Editor's Note: Every 10 years the National Academy of Sciences and the National Research Council charter a committee to survey and prioritize the most important programs in astronomy and astrophysics for the next decade. The committee to study the 1990s was chaired by John N. Bahcall of Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study, and its report was entitled The Decade of Discovery. NCSA Director Larry Smarr chaired the 26-member Panel on Astronomical Computing and co-authored a journal article with William Press, professor of astronomy and physics at Harvard, on the panel report of the Bahcall Committee (Computers in Physics, March-April 1991). The following questions, compiled by Fran Bond, access editor, and answered by Smarr and NCSA Research Associate Radha Nandkumar, summarize the panel report and are based on the Computers in Physics article.

1. What major trends do you see developing in the 1990s for astronomy and astrophysics?

The High Performance Computing and Communications Program, the national multiagency cross-disciplinary initiative, will pose a new context in which scientific research will be carried out. Astronomical science--by virtue of its intrinsic data and computation-intensive nature, its manageable size as a discipline, and its past experience and future opportunity--stands poised to be the cutting-edge application discipline in a number of major aspects of a national program.

In three complementary areas (digital data acquisition and archiving, intensive data processing, and theoretical modeling), astronomers and astrophysicists are ready to take advantage of virtually all of the expected technological advances of the 1990's: desktop high-performance workstations, widespread use of parallel computers, large increases in memory capacity, improvements in data storage technologies, improved use of graphics and visualization techniques, high-speed networking, and powerful new algorithms. The principal goal for astronomical computation in the1990s is connectivity of all these elements to guarantee access to the appropriate level of computational resources for all researchers.

2. During the 1980s the NSF supercomputer centers made supercomputers available to the research community and a significant segment took advantage of the opportunity. What will be the centers' role in the 1990s? And what did the committee recommend?

Despite the advances in desktop workstations and local computing resources, there will still be a place for large central computers: super-computers will be bigger and faster versions of what sits on a desktop. These machines with their huge memories, extensive disk capacity, and extremely fast processing and input and output rates, will be crucial to a subset of both the theoretical and observational computational users with the most demanding problems. These are the Grand Challenge problems in astronomy and astrophysics. The committee recommended that a hierarchy of computing resources be made available to the general astronomical community under the assumption that the supercomputer centers, which must be periodically upgraded to remain at the forefront of technology, continue to provide this scarce resource to the community.

3. Will desktop computing continue to be as significant in the nineties as it was in the eighties? If so, what changes do you foresee in the role of the desktop computer?

The 1990s will bring major advances in all levels of the computing hierarchy. The desktop environment and high-speed networks will alter the mode and methodology of the way research is accomplished. New microprocessor technologies are already positioning affordable, powerful computers on every astronomer's desk. These will be linked to each other over a national network, as well as to high-value resources such as supercomputers, national observatories, and national data banks. Some of these machines are nearly as powerful as today's supercomputers for many tasks. These workstations will make possible the acquisition and processing of large datasets, will provide links with research bibliographies, and will allow for the comparison of theoretical models with observations.

4. With the advancement in computational astrophysics/astronomy in the past 10 years, are there any long-standing problems that are nearer solution in the coming decade? If so, what are some of them?

The 1990s will be the decade where a number of long-standing astrophysical problems will be solved and computers will play an important role in these solutions. Areas which seem particularly ripe for rapid theoretical progress, and comparison with observations, can loosely be categorized as follows: large-scale structure of the universe and cosmology, active galaxies and jets, star formation and the interstellar medium, dynamics of stars and stellar atmospheres, supernovae, accretion onto compact objects, generation of gravitational radiation, and the microphysics and magnetohydrodynamics of astrophysical plasmas, and the addition of nonequilibrium physics to hydrodynamics codes.

5. What communitywide recommendations were made in the area of software and code development?

In order to utilize effectively the enormous advances in computer hardware and in digital detectors expected in the next decade, there must be an accompanying development of scientific software. The panel commended the observational community's leadership during the past decade in the development, maintenance, distribution, and support of community software such as AIPS, IRAF and FITS. NSF is commended for the support of this effort. The panel recommended that innovation must be fostered in the observational software arena as new detectors and new computer architectures create new opportunities for community tools, and that the scope should be broadened to include the development of community software for theoretical modeling.

6. With the number of space flights launched by NASA, there must be a tremendous data archive now. And widening the capabilities for archiving data is of general interest today. What did the committee advise in this area? Would any advancements in data archiving spinoff to the national centers? And would researchers at smaller institutions share in this?

Current and forthcoming missions in NASA's space astrophysics program may result in an average archival data rate of close to 10 terabytes per year by the end of the decade. Once the data have been processed, the volume that is distributed in the community will be a multiple of the primary archivally stored data. An appropriate long-term goal is for all electronic data obtained from space-based and ground-based telescopes to be archived and catalogued using modern data base management systems and for the scientific community to have free access to the archives. A nationally supported archiving program will allow researchers, students, and smaller colleges and universities to enter the mainstream of modern research in a way that is not now possible. Research using astronomical data archives can thus be very broadly based.

7. Could you summarize the panel's recommendations in a brief overview? Of these recommendations, which ones deserve top priority? The Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee made major recommendations based on input from the panel on Computing and Data Processing, which made specific recommendations in four areas: archiving, workstations and hierarchical computing, networks, and community code development. The committee recommended:

Regarding archiving, the panel made additional recommendations, including: Regarding community code development, the panel's recommendations were even more specific than the committee's: __________________________________________________________________
access / May-June 1992 / NCSA / pubs@ncsa.uiuc.edu